Spence vs. Tszyu: The Ultimate Crossroads Fight
It’s been nearly three years since Errol “The Truth” Spence Jr. stepped into a ring. The last time we saw him, he was being lifted off the canvas by Terence Crawford in a ninth-round TKO that ended his reign as unified welterweight champion. Tonight in Sydney, Spence (28-1, 22 KOs) returns against Tim Tszyu (27-3, 18 KOs) in a middleweight clash that will tell us everything about where both men stand in the sport’s hierarchy.
If you’re Filipino like me, you know what a crossroads fight means. It’s the moment when a champion’s heart gets tested — not just their skills. Spence has been through two car accidents, a DWI charge, and a career-altering loss to Crawford. He’s changed trainers (parting ways with Derrick James to work with Ronnie Shields), moved up in weight, and spent three years wondering if the fire still burns. Meanwhile, Tszyu has been through his own gauntlet — back-to-back losses to Sebastian Fundora (a bloody war) and Bakhram Murtazaliev (a brutal KO), before clawing his way back with three wins, albeit with another loss in the Fundora rematch.
The ESPN experts are split. Trainer Robert Garcia favors Tszyu, citing Spence’s inactivity and the car accident: “I think Tszyu wins, and it could even be a stoppage. At this point, Spence might not have anything left.” Former champion Raul Marquez leans the other way: “I think Spence is going to win a unanimous decision. Just to play it safe, he’ll be smart enough not to take risks.”
I’ve gone back and forth on this one all week. The Spence that broke down Shawn Porter, bullied Danny Garcia, and outworked Kell Brook in his own backyard was a special fighter. But that version of Spence hasn’t shown up since before the 2019 car crash. The Crawford fight revealed a fighter who had lost his edge — slower reactions, less output, diminished durability. Three years away from the ring at 36 years old is a mountain, not a molehill.
Tszyu is the younger man at 31, he’s fighting at home in Sydney, and he’s been active. But his chin has been tested in ways that raise legitimate questions — Fundora and Murtazaliev both put him down hard. My gut says we see a cautious, strategic fight that goes the distance. Spence’s jab and boxing IQ keep him in it, but Tszyu’s activity and home crowd carry him to a close decision win. Prediction: Tszyu by split decision.
The Undercard That Lost Its Spark
Jermall Charlo was supposed to be on this card — his first fight since November 2021, a layoff that rivals Spence’s for sheer inactivity. But Australia denied his visa under strict character requirements tied to his legal history. Four years out of the ring, a cancelled return, and no clear path forward. It’s a sad end to what was once a promising career, and it leaves the Sydney card without its expected co-feature.
Stephen Fulton vs. Liam Wilson remains on the card in a super featherweight clash that should deliver action. Fulton’s return to form after the Inoue loss has been impressive, and Wilson is game. Paul Fleming, Paulo Aokuso, and Callum Peters round out a card that’s still solid, just a little deflated without Charlo.
Joshua vs. Prenga: Same Day, Other Side of the World
On the same day, Anthony Joshua faces Kristian Prenga in Jeddah on a DAZN PPV card that’s stacked with title fights. Hamzah Sheeraz defends his WBO super middleweight title against Simon Zachenhuber, and Josh Kelly puts his IBF junior middleweight belt on the line against Caoimhin Agyarko. Two world title fights on the undercard of a heavyweight main event — Matchroom knows how to put on a show.
Joshua hasn’t looked quite like his old self since the back-to-back Usyk losses, but Prenga is a significant step down from the level AJ has been operating at. Expect a stoppage win inside eight rounds, with the focus shifting quickly to whatever comes next in the perpetually chaotic heavyweight division.
This Week’s Big Stories: Opetaia Sues the IBF
Jai Opetaia filed a lawsuit against the IBF this week, alleging the sanctioning body conspired to strip him of his cruiserweight title after he signed with Zuffa Boxing. The Australian former champion claims the IBF withdrew its sanction for his fight against Brandon Glanton in retaliation — a bold accusation that could reshape how the sanctioning bodies interact with the new promotional landscape. The suit, filed July 14 in Nevada, is still in its early stages, but the implications are massive. If Opetaia wins, it could establish legal precedent for how sanctioning bodies can treat fighters who sign with non-traditional promoters.
On the P4P front, the boxing world is still digesting this week’s ESPN divisional rankings update. Diego Pacheco’s 11th-round stoppage of Immanuwel Aleem held his ranking, while Andy Cruz’s win kept him in position. The Pacheco fight was a reminder of what elite young fighters look like when they find their groove — and a warning for Spence and Tszyu that the next generation isn’t waiting.
The Filipino Corner: Cuarto vs. Paradero Headlines in Paranaque
Here’s the fight that should matter most to Pinoy boxing fans this weekend: former IBF minimumweight champion Rene Mark “Mighty Mouse” Cuarto of Zamboanga del Norte takes on Robert Paradero of Bukidnon tonight at the Elorde Sports Complex in Paranaque City. It’s an all-Filipino showdown that won’t get the international attention of Spence-Tszyu, but has real stakes for our domestic scene. Cuarto is looking to climb back toward world title contention after losing his IBF belt to Pedro Taduran.
Meanwhile, undefeated Filipino prospect John Michael Zulueta (19-0-3, 12 KOs) headlines in Bangkok tonight on TrillerTV against a yet-to-be-named opponent. The light flyweight from Negros Occidental is quietly building a case for a world ranking return — he’s been undefeated for over seven years and is running out of domestic competition.
And let’s not forget Charly “The King’s Warrior” Suarez, who remains the WBO No. 1 contender at super featherweight after his first-round destruction of Eduardo Avila last weekend. Suarez is in pole position for a world title shot, and the WBO needs to enforce its mandate before the division moves on without him.
The Garcia-Benn Circus Continues
Things are already boiling over for September 12. Ryan Garcia and Conor Benn nearly came to blows at Fanatics Fest in New York this week, with Garcia promising to knock Benn out in five rounds or less. The WBC welterweight title fight has all the makings of a circus — the trash talk, the bad blood, the PED histories — but the fight itself is genuinely compelling. Garcia’s hand speed against Benn’s pressure could produce one of the best fights of the year, or it could devolve into a farce. I’m leaning toward the former.
What’s Coming Next
August is stacked. Amanda Serrano chases Christy Martin’s knockout record on August 21 on a TikTok LIVE card that’s unprecedented in women’s boxing — a mainstream streaming platform headlining a female world title fight. Romero-Lopez on August 22 is a pure action fight between two guys who can’t help but brawl. And September kicks off with Ruiz-Knyba, Katie Taylor’s Dublin homecoming, and the aforementioned Garcia-Benn megafight.
But first, tonight. Spence vs. Tszyu. Joshua vs. Prenga. Cuarto vs. Paradero. Zulueta in Bangkok. It’s one of those rare Saturdays where you need multiple screens and a willingness to stay up past midnight. And honestly? That’s the best kind of boxing weekend.